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SPS-100 | IBMSPSSSTATL1P - IBM SPSS Statistics Level 1

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SPS-100 - IBMSPSSSTATL1P - IBM SPSS Statistics Level 1 - braindump

Vendor IBM
Exam Number SPS-100
Exam Name IBMSPSSSTATL1P - IBM SPSS Statistics Level 1
Questions 70 Q & A
Recent Update October 17, 2018
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SPS-100 exam Dumps Source : IBMSPSSSTATL1P - IBM SPSS Statistics Level 1

Test Code : SPS-100
Test Name : IBMSPSSSTATL1P - IBM SPSS Statistics Level 1
Vendor Name : IBM
Q&A : 70 Real Questions

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IBM IBMSPSSSTATL1P - IBM SPSS

inhabitants-level sexual behaviours in adolescent girls earlier than and after introduction of the human papillomavirus vaccine (2003–2013) | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

abstract

heritage: The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is delivered largely through college-primarily based immunization programs. Some groups have expressed situation that HPV vaccination courses will effect in a rise in sexual risk-taking behaviours among children. We aimed to consider population-stage changes in sexual behaviours before and after implementation of the college-based mostly HPV vaccination application in British Columbia.

strategies: In 2008, a faculty-based mostly HPV vaccination software for women turned into added in British Columbia. the use of information from the BC Adolescent fitness Survey — a longitudinal provincial survey administered in faculties to trap adolescent physical and emotional fitness indications, we performed a linear style analysis on sexual health behaviours and risk elements in adolescent ladies earlier than and after the implementation of vaccination for HPV (2003, 2008 and 2013).

consequences: We analyzed facts for 298 265 girls who self-recognized as heterosexual. The percentage of ladies reporting ever having sexual activity reduced from 21.3% (2003) to 18.three% (2013; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.seventy nine). Self-file of sexual activity earlier than the age of 14 years reduced greatly from 2008 to 2013 (adjusted OR 0.76), as did stated substance use earlier than intercourse (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 0.69). There turned into no gigantic change in the variety of sexual partners said (2003–2013). Between 2003 and 2013, ladies’ mentioned use of contraception and condoms expanded, while being pregnant costs reduced.

INTERPRETATION: in view that the implementation of faculty-primarily based HPV vaccination software in BC, sexual chance behaviours said by means of adolescent ladies either reduced or stayed the equal. These findings make contributions facts towards any association between HPV vaccination and risky sexual behaviours.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is probably the most often clinically determined sexually transmitted infection on the planet.1 while nearly all of HPV infections are transient and resolve naturally without intervention, persistent an infection with high-risk kinds of HPV can cause precancerous lesions that may additionally progress to cervical, anal, oropharyngeal or different reproductive tract cancers, or anogenital warts if left untreated.2 there is proof that vaccination courses for HPV easily in the reduction of costs of high-risk styles of HPV on the population and medical degree.3,four Cervarix (GlaxoSmithKline), Gardasil and Gardasil-9 (Merck) are the 3 vaccines approved by fitness Canada5 and advised for use through the Canadian national Advisory Committee on Immunization.6 All three vaccines offer protection to in opposition t HPV kinds sixteen and 18, which might be accountable for 70% of all cervical cancers.2 Gardasil and Gardasil-9 reduce the risk of further styles of HPV that are associated with genital warts and different cancers.

Many international locations have implemented countrywide publicly funded immunization programs for HPV. These courses are provided usually in college to adolescent girls aged 9–13 years and, in recent years, to boys.7 faculty-primarily based classes for HPV vaccination have proven wide coverage amongst adolescent populations in comparison with other strategies.eight despite the fact, terrible beliefs about HPV vaccination may also current boundaries to uptake. folks of adolescent girls have expressed challenge that HPV vaccination at a young age would inspire risky sexual behaviours akin to early sexual debut, greater sexual companions or unprotected intercourse,9–11 and that by way of consenting to having their newborn obtain the HPV vaccine that they would be condoning sexual undertaking at more youthful a long time.12

Some proof from sanatorium-based populations, billings by way of physicians and go-sectional reviews of existing cohorts suggests no affiliation between HPV vaccination and accelerated sexual chance behaviours after vaccination.13–15 besides the fact that children, few studies have examined inhabitants-degree sexual behaviours over time. during this analyze, we used a longtime provincial adolescent fitness survey to evaluate population-level changes in sexual health and risky behaviours over a decade, earlier than and after the implementation of the faculty-based mostly HPV vaccination software, in British Columbia, Canada.11

strategies Survey design and strategies

The BC Adolescent health Survey has been performed each 5 or 6 years on the grounds that 1992 and represents more than 1.four million students enrolled in public colleges within the province.sixteen it is a cluster-stratified randomized survey of school rooms in grades 7 through 12 in public colleges throughout BC, administered between January and June of the crucial 12 months. college students complete the questionnaire (comprising about one hundred forty items) via hand, facilitated with the aid of public health nurses and nursing students.sixteen Questions included those about demographic information, fitness, harmful behaviours, health protective elements and respondents’ experiences concerning health and different risk exposures. The survey is anonymous and doesn't capture identifiable statistics. Survey items were derived from current surveys in Canada and the United States17 or pilot-validated in keeping with neighborhood session and checking out.16 best objects that have been the same throughout all 3 survey years have been included during this analysis. The typical participation price within the survey is set 75% each 12 months. further descriptions of survey strategies were published in the past.sixteen

faculty software for human papillomavirus vaccination

In September 2008, BC launched a publicly funded, faculty-based mostly routine application for HPV vaccination.18 all through the primary three years of the software, girls in grades 6 and 9 (born in 1994 to 1997) have been provided vaccination for HPV. After 2011, the software changed into obtainable for women in grade 6 best, accomplishing these born in 1997 and later. Between 2008 and 2014, girls have been offered a 3-dose vaccination schedule, which changed to a 2-dose schedule after 2014 for girls below the age of 15 years who had been starting the collection.

The college-based HPV vaccine application was no longer attainable for women who achieved the survey in 2003 and 2008. For 2013, all survey contributors would have had the probability to get hold of HPV vaccination in the event that they attended a BC faculty in grade 6 or 9. We acquired uptake quotes for HPV vaccination from the immunization insurance stories provided by way of the BC Centre for disease manage, which trap all HPV vaccinations in the province. coverage quotes were defined because the share of female students enrolled in the primary grade (6 or 9) within the detailed year who have been up thus far with HPV vaccination via June 30.19,20

Sampling

We analyzed information from the 2003, 2008 and 2013 BC Adolescent fitness Surveys. We stratified via grade and fitness provider birth enviornment (there are sixteen areas within the 5 regional health authorities in BC) to reap a representative pattern at provincial and regional tiers. The pattern dimension became adjusted inside each and every grade and fitness service beginning area stratum to be certain standard mistakes of three.5% or lessen. In school districts that required signed parental consent, the response rate became reduce than in school districts that required parental notification and pupil consent. therefore, we over-sampled these districts (about 25%–30% of collaborating faculty districts). We blanketed only the college districts that had participated in all three survey rounds; 46 of the 59 college districts (77.9%) met this criterion.

We weighted information after survey completion to regulate for differential chance of sampling and differential response charges and scaled to provincial enrolment by consultants at facts Canada. For this analysis, we included simplest adolescent women who indicated that they have been heterosexual, unsure, questioning or without sights within the final weighted sample. girls who identified as lesbian or bisexual (who represented < 5% of the entire sample) will be examined in a separate evaluation, as a result of there may well be alterations in sexual determination-making amongst ladies who establish as lesbian or bisexual and, hence, it is unclear whether the HPV vaccine would have similar impact.

Measures

Measures blanketed demographic assistance (age, city or rural residence and whether born in Canada) and selected sexual fitness behaviours (ever having sexual activity, age at the beginning intercourse, number of sexual partners in the past yr, substance use before final intercourse, use of condoms for ultimate intercourse, use of birth control tablets ultimately intercourse and being pregnant involvement). additional descriptions of study measures and definitions have been published previously.sixteen

Statistical evaluation

We used SPSS complex Samples edition 22.0 (IBM) to adjust for complex cluster-stratified sampling and weighted data. We pronounced the prevalence of self-mentioned sexual behaviours amongst heterosexual ladies for every year. To check the linear style of sexual behaviours, contraception use and being pregnant involvement throughout years, we used age-adjusted logistic regression fashions (reference 12 months 2013). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) below 1 indicated that the trend (or odds) of the given sexual behaviour in the earlier survey 12 months was greater than in 2013, and adjusted ORs improved than 1 indicated that the percentages of the behaviour in the earlier survey had been under in 2013.

Ethics approval

The examine become approved via the Behavioural analysis Ethics Board on the college of British Columbia (H12-02630).

results

The weighted and scaled population estimate for adolescent ladies who recognized as heterosexual or had been doubtful turned into 302 626 (desk 1), of whom 123 166 (40.7%) participated in 2003, ninety nine 925 (33.0%) in 2008 (prevaccination community) and seventy nine 535 (26.3%) in 2013 (postvaccination group). Demographic factors are introduced in desk 1. The age range turned into 12–18 years for women in all years. Most women lived in city areas (between 86.6% and 88.0% for all years), and most had been born in Canada (eighty one.three%–eighty two% for all years). in the first 12 months of the BC faculty-based mostly HPV vaccination application (2008/09), uptake rates have been sixty one.eight% among feminine students in grade 6. prices diminished a bit of the following yr however then increased over time to sixty eight.8% in 2013.19 amongst feminine college students in grade 9, 62.1% of eligible women have been vaccinated in 2008/09, and costs decreased a bit of to sixty one.7% in 2011 (table 2).20

table 1:

traits of feminine contributors in the BC Adolescent health Survey, by way of years 2003, 2008 and 2013

desk 2:

coverage fees of the college-based mostly vaccination program for human papillomavirus among female individuals in grades 6 and 9 in British Columbia, 2008–2013

members had been asked even if they'd had intercourse in their lifetime, and simplest those with valid responses were blanketed within the evaluation (inhabitants estimate 298 265; 1.5% of responses were missing from the demographic inhabitants). handiest girls who answered yes to this question answered subsequent questions concerning sexual behaviours. incidence and adjusted OR between time aspects among ladies who identified as heterosexual are offered in table three. The occurrence of women reporting ever having sexual intercourse reduced frequently between survey years, from 21.three% in 2003 to 20.6% in 2008 to 18.3% in 2013. When comparing prevaccination years (2003 and 2008) with the postvaccination 12 months (2013), the adjusted ORs for ever having sexual intercourse were 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71–0.88) and zero.89 (95% CI 0.eighty two–0.ninety eight), respectively, which suggests that girls were tremendously less prone to document ever having sex after introduction of the HPV vaccination program.

desk 3:

Sexual behaviours in female contributors between 2003 and 2013, according to the BC Adolescent fitness Survey

amongst those that have ever had intercourse, the share having intercourse before the age of 14 years also decreased over time, with a major change followed between 2008 and 2013 (adjusted OR 0.76, ninety five% CI 0.sixty one–0.ninety six). There changed into no big change within the occurrence of getting 3 or more sexual partners over time (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 1.02, ninety five% CI 0.eighty three–1.26; adjusted OR for 2008–2013 0.ninety, ninety five% CI 0.seventy five–1.09). The percent of women who used components akin to alcohol or drugs before their ultimate intercourse extended a bit of between 2003 (26.0%) and 2008 (28.3%), and then reduced in 2013 (19.three%). The trend analyses confirmed that prevalence of substance use earlier than closing intercourse diminished after implementation of the HPV vaccination program (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 0.69, ninety five% CI 0.58–0.82).

pronounced use of condoms and birth control capsules extended from outdated years to 2013. Condom use turned into sixty five.6% in 2003, which lowered to sixty three.3% in 2008 and multiplied to sixty eight.9% in 2013. Condom use tremendously extended from outdated years to 2013 after implementation of the HPV vaccination application (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 1.19, ninety five% CI 1.02–1.39). Oral contraceptive use elevated by means of 9.four% between 2003 and 2013 (adjusted OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.21–1.67). The occurrence of ladies who suggested being pregnant reduced by 42% from 2003 to 2013 (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 0.fifty six, ninety five% CI 0.40–0.eighty).

Interpretation

After implementation of the publicly funded college-primarily based vaccination program for HPV in September 2008 in BC, sexual behaviours and sexual health warning signs among adolescent girls both more desirable toward safer sexual fitness practices or did not exchange drastically. Our evaluation of records from the BC Adolescent health Survey suggests that the implementation of a faculty-primarily based software for HPV vaccination was now not associated with a rise in risky sexual behaviours among adolescent girls on the population degree.

considerations that the HPV vaccine could lead on to increasingly dangerous sexual behaviours originate from the belief that by way of collaborating in an intervention that reduces chance, one may additionally have interaction in better-chance behaviours (often known as chance compensation21 or chance homeostasis).22 experiences on chance notion after HPV vaccination imply that linked adolescent beliefs don't seem to be aligned with risk compensation conception. Two 2012 experiences suggested that, youngsters adolescent girls who had acquired the HPV vaccine perceived themselves to be at decrease risk of buying HPV, they did not perceive a decrease possibility for different sexually transmitted infections, and most reported the continued want for safer sexual practices.23,24 it is worth noting that a comprehensive vaccine training software was paired with the implementation of the HPV vaccination software in BC.25 This might have offered members with a more robust realizing of the boundaries of the HPV vaccine for protection in opposition t different sexually transmitted infections.

A potential cohort look at that used clinical symptoms to measure sexual behaviours among eleven- to 12-yr-ancient women enrolled in a managed care firm within the US, who have been exposed and never uncovered to the HPV vaccine, found no alterations between corporations in incidence of being pregnant, checking out for sexually transmitted illnesses or contraceptive counselling.15 a different examine found no improved chance in composite consequences of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection amongst adolescent girls after implementation of Ontario’s grade eight HPV vaccination application.13 These studies examined medical results involving risky sexual behaviours as a proxy for direct measures of such behaviours, reminiscent of age at the start intercourse or variety of sexual partners. reviews of self-reported direct measures of dangerous behaviours in a similar way mentioned no affiliation between measures of sexual debut and HPV vaccination.26,27 different analysis has additionally discovered no relationship between HPV vaccination and the number of sexual companions,26,27 which is in keeping with the results of our analyze. In different analysis, use of condoms and contraceptives turned into constantly greater among younger ladies who had received the vaccine than those that had now not.four,26,27 We did not find other studies that examined the affiliation between HPV vaccination and substance use before intercourse.

The main strength of our look at is that it's consultant of the BC population because of its colossal sample measurement and sophisticated sampling approach the use of an established provincial adolescent health survey, accompanied by a high response expense. outdated analysis has concentrated chiefly on clinic-based populations, retrospective cohorts and smaller move-sectional analyze samples.

barriers

Our evaluation has some boundaries. We didn't assess the direct relationship between particular person HPV vaccination reputation and sexual behaviours, and we cannot infer particular person-degree or causal relationships since the Adolescent fitness Survey does not capture identifiable records that will also be linked to public fitness vaccination facts. youngsters, a self-said query on HPV vaccination popularity is being covered for future survey cycles. For this ecological analyze, we used time as an indicator to separate the prevaccination program inhabitants (2003 and 2008) from the postvaccination population (2013). We don't imply that the accompanied sexual behaviours over time are as a result of the implementation of HPV vaccination in BC. previous facts from the survey has shown a downward vogue in risky sexual behaviours on the grounds that earlier than 2003.sixteen Sexual and reproductive health behaviours are influenced by way of a complex interplay of contextual components together with the felony and political atmosphere, as well as sociocultural and economic components.28 there's evidence of a world trend towards safer intercourse practices considering that before the HPV vaccine was obtainable.29,30 In sub-Saharan Africa the place HPV vaccination is typically absent, a multicountry analyze the usage of records from 2000 to 2010 accompanied traits towards older age of sexual debut and increasing use of contraception over time.31 inhabitants statistics in the US for 1976–2016 showed that fewer children have been conducting behaviours akin to courting, alcohol consumption and intercourse, with a sharp decline seeing that 2000.30 Sexual behaviour information are self-reported and may be area to consider and social desirability bias. besides the fact that children, this bias was probably current in all survey years.

Conclusion

Our finding that self-mentioned harmful sexual behaviours decreased or stayed the identical amongst adolescent girls in BC after introduction of a college HPV vaccination software with uptake of about 68% can assist mitigate issues based on chance compensation concept.

Future analyses should explore differences between women who identify with other sexual orientations akin to homosexuality and evaluate sexual behaviour amongst ladies who acquired the HPV vaccine and people who did not. further reports may be conducted to explore countrywide traits or verify transformations between distinct provincial vaccination classes.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Dr. Yuko Homma and Dr. Gu Li (Stigma and Resilience amongst prone early life Centre, The school of British Columbia), who provided one of the statistical evaluation for the article.

Footnotes
  • visual summary available at www.cmaj.ca/search for/suppl/doi:10.1053/cmaj.180628/-/DC1

  • Competing interests: Gina Ogilvie and Simon Dobson reported antibody assay trying out bought from Merck that changed into conducted as a part of an unbiased analyze monitoring antibody response to the HPV vaccine. The assay testing was finished for free of charge to the look at. No other competing pastimes had been declared.

  • this article has been peer reviewed.

  • Contributors: Gina Ogilvie, Simon Dobson, Monika Naus and Elizabeth Saewyc contributed appreciably to the concept and design of the look at. Monika Naus and Elizabeth Saewyc contributed radically to statistics acquisition. Felicia Phan and Elizabeth Saewyc contributed appreciably to information analysis. Gina Ogilvie, Felicia Phan and Heather Pedersen notably contributed to the interpretation of the information. Felicia Phan and Heather Pedersen drafted the preliminary manuscript. all the authors reviewed and revised the manuscript seriously for critical intellectual content, gave closing approval of the edition to be published, and agreed to be responsible for all features of the work in guaranteeing that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are correctly investigated and resolved.

  • Funding: This analyze turned into funded in part by way of Canadian Institutes of fitness research (CIHR) furnish no. MOP 119472 to Elizabeth Saewyc (primary investigator) and a CIHR basis provide to Gina Ogilvie (predominant investigator).

  • facts sharing: The BC Adolescent health Survey is carried out through the McCreary Centre Society; they give acclaim for information access to centered fitness and social science researchers whose proposed research aligns with the fashioned functions of the survey. data can be found for analysis simplest on web page on the McCreary Centre Society in Vancouver, BC, on its secure computers, after approval of the proposed analyses, a signed Memorandum of figuring out and charge of statistics access charges to provide desktop access and technical guide. extra suggestions on accessing the BC Adolescent fitness Surveys is available at www.mcs.bc.ca/research_partnerships.

  • Disclaimer: The funders had no role in look at design, records assortment and analysis, choice to put up or education of the manuscript.

  • authorized August 20, 2018.

  • Monster Merger: IBM Buys SPSS For Approx. $1.2 Billion In money Deal | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

    IBM is purchasing analytics application and solutions issuer SPSS in an all money transaction at a cost of $50/share – a 42 % premium to Monday’s closing price of $35.09 on Nasdaq – leading to a total cash consideration within the merger of approximately $1.2 billion. The acquisition is area to SPSS shareholder approval, regulatory clearances and different closing situations, and is anticipated to close later in the 2d half of 2009.

    big Blue talked about the acquisition of the publicly-held Chicago business changed into expected to beef up its counsel-agenda initiative, which helps companies take information and turn it right into a strategic asset. IBM shares fell sixty seven cent to $116.96 in pre-market buying and selling, while SPSS shares jumped 41 % to $49.fifty nine.

    A message from SPSS Chairman, CEO & President Jack Noonan:

    We and IBM view this as a enormously-complementary move from both a technology and a market position standpoint.

    We’re enthusiastic about this agreement and the fine prospects that SPSS and IBM can achieve together in carrying on with to steer an industry that we helped shape. The depth and breadth of IBM’s elements, its client and market reach can simplest increase our skill to handle the starting to be marketplace for Predictive Analytics.

    In joining with IBM, we are able to strengthen Predictive Analytics as a competitive talents for corporations and organizations global. We see this as a transformative adventure on the way to accelerate the adoption of Predictive Analytics.

    Between now and the acquisition close, we will proceed to support our valued clientele and companions in usual trend. present contracts will remain in effect, account relationships and support infrastructure will stay unchanged.

    Predictive analytics utility captures and analyzes facts about individuals’s attributes, attitudes and behaviors to profit a full realizing of expected future behaviors, so companies could make smarter choices for more advantageous enterprise results.

    IBM says it'll proceed to aid and enhance SPSS applied sciences whereas allowing consumers to take skills of its personal product portfolio. SPSS will become a part of the information administration division inside the software community business unit, led by way of Ambuj Goyal, widespread supervisor, IBM tips management.

    update – In different news: IBM also obtained Ounce Labs, a issuer of business supply code security checking out and intends to combine it into its Rational software business. fiscal phrases were no longer disclosed.


    IBM is speeding up SPSS with Apache Spark | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

    IBM nowadays announced that it's improving several of its current software products with the Apache Spark open-source information processing engine, together with the SPSS predictive analytics utility.

    IBM purchased SPSS for $1.2 billion in 2009. SPSS itself begun at Stanford university in 1968 and is standard in statistics classes at universities.

    IBM is in particular incorporating Spark into SPSS Modeler and SPSS Analytic Server, a spokesman instructed VentureBeat in an e-mail.

    Spark is also being applied to IBM’s BigInsights, Streams, and DataWorks application, based on a statement.

    The Sparkification of IBM comes after huge Blue announced a massive dedication to the open-source utility in June. on the time, IBM introduced Spark as a service on its Bluemix cloud; that carrier is now often available.

    IBM has made greater than 60 contributions to Spark since the June announcement, in accordance with the statement.




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    Population-level sexual behaviours in adolescent girls before and after introduction of the human papillomavirus vaccine (2003–2013) | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Abstract

    BACKGROUND: The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is delivered widely through school-based immunization programs. Some groups have expressed concern that HPV vaccination programs will result in an increase in sexual risk-taking behaviours among adolescents. We aimed to evaluate population-level changes in sexual behaviours before and after implementation of the school-based HPV vaccination program in British Columbia.

    METHODS: In 2008, a school-based HPV vaccination program for girls was introduced in British Columbia. Using data from the BC Adolescent Health Survey — a longitudinal provincial survey administered in schools to capture adolescent physical and emotional health indicators, we conducted a linear trend analysis on sexual health behaviours and risk factors in adolescent girls before and after the implementation of vaccination for HPV (2003, 2008 and 2013).

    RESULTS: We analyzed data for 298 265 girls who self-identified as heterosexual. The proportion of girls reporting ever having sexual intercourse decreased from 21.3% (2003) to 18.3% (2013; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.79). Self-report of sexual intercourse before the age of 14 years decreased significantly from 2008 to 2013 (adjusted OR 0.76), as did reported substance use before intercourse (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 0.69). There was no significant change in the number of sexual partners reported (2003–2013). Between 2003 and 2013, girls’ reported use of contraception and condoms increased, while pregnancy rates decreased.

    INTERPRETATION: Since the implementation of school-based HPV vaccination program in BC, sexual risk behaviours reported by adolescent girls either reduced or stayed the same. These findings contribute evidence against any association between HPV vaccination and risky sexual behaviours.

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection in the world.1 While the majority of HPV infections are transient and resolve naturally without intervention, persistent infection with high-risk types of HPV can cause precancerous lesions that may progress to cervical, anal, oropharyngeal or other reproductive tract cancers, or anogenital warts if left untreated.2 There is evidence that vaccination programs for HPV effectively reduce rates of high-risk types of HPV at the population and clinical level.3,4 Cervarix (GlaxoSmithKline), Gardasil and Gardasil-9 (Merck) are the 3 vaccines approved by Health Canada5 and recommended for use by the Canadian National Advisory Committee on Immunization.6 All 3 vaccines protect against HPV types 16 and 18, which are responsible for 70% of all cervical cancers.2 Gardasil and Gardasil-9 reduce the risk of additional types of HPV that are associated with genital warts and other cancers.

    Many countries have implemented national publicly funded immunization programs for HPV. These programs are offered typically in school to adolescent girls aged 9–13 years and, in recent years, to boys.7 School-based programs for HPV vaccination have shown broad coverage among adolescent populations compared with other approaches.8 However, negative beliefs about HPV vaccination may present barriers to uptake. Parents of adolescent girls have expressed concern that HPV vaccination at a young age would encourage risky sexual behaviours such as early sexual debut, more sexual partners or unprotected intercourse,9–11 and that by consenting to having their child receive the HPV vaccine that they would be condoning sexual activity at younger ages.12

    Some evidence from clinic-based populations, billings by physicians and cross-sectional studies of existing cohorts suggests no association between HPV vaccination and increased sexual risk behaviours after vaccination.13–15 However, few studies have examined population-level sexual behaviours over time. In this study, we used an established provincial adolescent health survey to evaluate population-level changes in sexual health and risky behaviours over a decade, before and after the implementation of the school-based HPV vaccination program, in British Columbia, Canada.11

    Methods Survey design and methods

    The BC Adolescent Health Survey has been conducted every 5 or 6 years since 1992 and represents more than 1.4 million students enrolled in public schools in the province.16 It is a cluster-stratified randomized survey of classrooms in grades 7 through 12 in public schools across BC, administered between January and June of the relevant year. Students complete the questionnaire (comprising about 140 items) by hand, facilitated by public health nurses and nursing students.16 Questions included those about demographic information, health, risky behaviours, health protective factors and respondents’ experiences concerning health and other risk exposures. The survey is anonymous and does not capture identifiable data. Survey items were derived from existing surveys in Canada and the United States17 or pilot-tested based on community consultation and testing.16 Only items that were the same across all 3 survey years were included in this analysis. The overall participation rate in the survey is about 75% each year. Additional descriptions of survey methods have been published previously.16

    School program for human papillomavirus vaccination

    In September 2008, BC launched a publicly funded, school-based routine program for HPV vaccination.18 During the first 3 years of the program, girls in grades 6 and 9 (born in 1994 to 1997) were offered vaccination for HPV. After 2011, the program was available for girls in grade 6 only, reaching those born in 1997 and later. Between 2008 and 2014, girls were offered a 3-dose vaccination schedule, which changed to a 2-dose schedule after 2014 for girls under the age of 15 years who were starting the series.

    The school-based HPV vaccine program was not available for girls who completed the survey in 2003 and 2008. For 2013, all survey participants would have had the opportunity to receive HPV vaccination if they attended a BC school in grade 6 or 9. We obtained uptake rates for HPV vaccination from the immunization coverage reports provided by the BC Centre for Disease Control, which capture all HPV vaccinations in the province. Coverage rates were defined as the proportion of female students enrolled in the relevant grade (6 or 9) in the specified year who were up to date with HPV vaccination by June 30.19,20

    Sampling

    We analyzed data from the 2003, 2008 and 2013 BC Adolescent Health Surveys. We stratified by grade and health service delivery area (there are 16 areas within the 5 regional health authorities in BC) to obtain a representative sample at provincial and regional levels. The sample size was adjusted within each grade and health service delivery area stratum to ensure standard errors of 3.5% or lower. In school districts that required signed parental consent, the response rate was lower than in school districts that required parental notification and student consent. Therefore, we over-sampled these districts (about 25%–30% of participating school districts). We included only the school districts that had participated in all 3 survey rounds; 46 of the 59 school districts (77.9%) met this criterion.

    We weighted data after survey completion to adjust for differential probability of sampling and differential response rates and scaled to provincial enrolment by consultants at Statistics Canada. For this analysis, we included only adolescent girls who indicated that they were heterosexual, unsure, questioning or without attractions in the final weighted sample. Girls who identified as lesbian or bisexual (who represented < 5% of the total sample) will be examined in a separate analysis, because there may be differences in sexual decision-making among girls who identify as lesbian or bisexual and, therefore, it is unclear whether the HPV vaccine would have comparable effect.

    Measures

    Measures included demographic information (age, urban or rural residence and whether born in Canada) and selected sexual health behaviours (ever having sexual intercourse, age at first intercourse, number of sexual partners within the past year, substance use before last intercourse, use of condoms for last intercourse, use of birth control pills at last intercourse and pregnancy involvement). Additional descriptions of study measures and definitions have been published previously.16

    Statistical analysis

    We used SPSS Complex Samples version 22.0 (IBM) to adjust for complex cluster-stratified sampling and weighted data. We reported the prevalence of self-reported sexual behaviours among heterosexual girls for each year. To test the linear trend of sexual behaviours, contraception use and pregnancy involvement across years, we used age-adjusted logistic regression models (reference year 2013). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) less than 1 indicated that the trend (or odds) of the given sexual behaviour in the earlier survey year was greater than in 2013, and adjusted ORs greater than 1 indicated that the odds of the behaviour in the earlier survey were less than in 2013.

    Ethics approval

    The study was approved by the Behavioural Research Ethics Board at The University of British Columbia (H12-02630).

    Results

    The weighted and scaled population estimate for adolescent girls who identified as heterosexual or were unsure was 302 626 (Table 1), of whom 123 166 (40.7%) participated in 2003, 99 925 (33.0%) in 2008 (prevaccination group) and 79 535 (26.3%) in 2013 (postvaccination group). Demographic factors are presented in Table 1. The age range was 12–18 years for girls in all years. Most girls lived in urban areas (between 86.6% and 88.0% for all years), and most were born in Canada (81.3%–82% for all years). In the first year of the BC school-based HPV vaccination program (2008/09), uptake rates were 61.8% among female students in grade 6. Rates decreased slightly the following year but then increased over time to 68.8% in 2013.19 Among female students in grade 9, 62.1% of eligible girls were vaccinated in 2008/09, and rates decreased slightly to 61.7% in 2011 (Table 2).20

    Table 1:

    Characteristics of female participants in the BC Adolescent Health Survey, by years 2003, 2008 and 2013

    Table 2:

    Coverage rates of the school-based vaccination program for human papillomavirus among female participants in grades 6 and 9 in British Columbia, 2008–2013

    Participants were asked whether they had had sex in their lifetime, and only those with valid responses were included in the analysis (population estimate 298 265; 1.5% of responses were missing from the demographic population). Only girls who responded yes to this question answered subsequent questions related to sexual behaviours. Prevalence and adjusted OR between time points among girls who identified as heterosexual are presented in Table 3. The prevalence of girls reporting ever having sexual intercourse decreased steadily between survey years, from 21.3% in 2003 to 20.6% in 2008 to 18.3% in 2013. When comparing prevaccination years (2003 and 2008) with the postvaccination year (2013), the adjusted ORs for ever having sexual intercourse were 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71–0.88) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.82–0.98), respectively, which indicates that girls were significantly less likely to report ever having sex after introduction of the HPV vaccination program.

    Table 3:

    Sexual behaviours in female participants between 2003 and 2013, based on the BC Adolescent Health Survey

    Among those who have ever had intercourse, the proportion having intercourse before the age of 14 years also decreased over time, with a significant change observed between 2008 and 2013 (adjusted OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61–0.96). There was no significant change in the prevalence of having 3 or more sexual partners over time (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 1.02, 95% CI 0.83–1.26; adjusted OR for 2008–2013 0.90, 95% CI 0.75–1.09). The percentage of girls who used substances such as alcohol or drugs before their last intercourse increased slightly between 2003 (26.0%) and 2008 (28.3%), and then decreased in 2013 (19.3%). The trend analyses showed that prevalence of substance use before last intercourse decreased after implementation of the HPV vaccination program (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 0.69, 95% CI 0.58–0.82).

    Reported use of condoms and birth control pills increased from previous years to 2013. Condom use was 65.6% in 2003, which decreased to 63.3% in 2008 and increased to 68.9% in 2013. Condom use significantly increased from previous years to 2013 after implementation of the HPV vaccination program (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 1.19, 95% CI 1.02–1.39). Oral contraceptive use increased by 9.4% between 2003 and 2013 (adjusted OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.21–1.67). The prevalence of girls who reported pregnancy decreased by 42% from 2003 to 2013 (adjusted OR for 2003–2013 0.56, 95% CI 0.40–0.80).

    Interpretation

    After implementation of the publicly funded school-based vaccination program for HPV in September 2008 in BC, sexual behaviours and sexual health indicators among adolescent girls either improved toward safer sexual health practices or did not change significantly. Our analysis of data from the BC Adolescent Health Survey suggests that the implementation of a school-based program for HPV vaccination was not associated with an increase in risky sexual behaviours among adolescent girls at the population level.

    Concerns that the HPV vaccine could lead to increasingly risky sexual behaviours originate from the perception that by participating in an intervention that reduces risk, one may engage in higher-risk behaviours (also called risk compensation21 or risk homeostasis).22 Studies on risk perception after HPV vaccination suggest that related adolescent beliefs are not aligned with risk compensation theory. Two 2012 studies reported that, although adolescent girls who had received the HPV vaccine perceived themselves to be at lower risk of acquiring HPV, they did not perceive a lower risk for other sexually transmitted infections, and most reported the continued need for safer sexual practices.23,24 It is worth noting that a comprehensive vaccine education program was paired with the implementation of the HPV vaccination program in BC.25 This could have provided participants with a better understanding of the limits of the HPV vaccine for protection against other sexually transmitted infections.

    A prospective cohort study that used clinical indicators to measure sexual behaviours among 11- to 12-year-old girls enrolled in a managed care organization in the US, who were exposed and not exposed to the HPV vaccine, found no differences between groups in incidence of pregnancy, testing for sexually transmitted diseases or contraceptive counselling.15 Another study found no increased risk in composite outcomes of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection among adolescent girls after implementation of Ontario’s grade 8 HPV vaccination program.13 These studies examined clinical outcomes related to risky sexual behaviours as a proxy for direct measures of such behaviours, such as age at first intercourse or number of sexual partners. Studies of self-reported direct measures of risky behaviours similarly reported no association between measures of sexual debut and HPV vaccination.26,27 Other research has also found no relationship between HPV vaccination and the number of sexual partners,26,27 which is consistent with the results of our study. In other research, use of condoms and contraceptives was consistently higher among young women who had received the vaccine than those who had not.4,26,27 We did not find other studies that examined the association between HPV vaccination and substance use before intercourse.

    The main strength of our study is that it is representative of the BC population because of its large sample size and complex sampling technique using an established provincial adolescent health survey, accompanied by a high response rate. Previous research has focused mainly on clinic-based populations, retrospective cohorts and smaller cross-sectional study samples.

    Limitations

    Our analysis has some limitations. We did not examine the direct relationship between individual HPV vaccination status and sexual behaviours, and we cannot infer individual-level or causal relationships because the Adolescent Health Survey does not capture identifiable data that can be linked to public health vaccination records. However, a self-reported question on HPV vaccination status is being included for future survey cycles. For this ecological study, we used time as an indicator to separate the prevaccination program population (2003 and 2008) from the postvaccination population (2013). We do not suggest that the observed sexual behaviours over time are attributable to the implementation of HPV vaccination in BC. Previous evidence from the survey has shown a downward trend in risky sexual behaviours since before 2003.16 Sexual and reproductive health behaviours are influenced by a complex interplay of contextual factors including the legal and political environment, as well as sociocultural and economic factors.28 There is evidence of a global trend toward safer sex practices since before the HPV vaccine was available.29,30 In sub-Saharan Africa where HPV vaccination is mostly absent, a multicountry study using data from 2000 to 2010 observed trends toward older age of sexual debut and increasing use of contraception over time.31 Population data in the US for 1976–2016 showed that fewer adolescents have been engaging in behaviours such as dating, alcohol consumption and sex, with a sharp decline since 2000.30 Sexual behaviour data are self-reported and may be subject to recall and social desirability bias. However, this bias was likely present in all survey years.

    Conclusion

    Our finding that self-reported risky sexual behaviours reduced or stayed the same among adolescent girls in BC after introduction of a school HPV vaccination program with uptake of about 68% can help mitigate concerns based on risk compensation theory.

    Future analyses should explore differences between girls who identify with other sexual orientations such as homosexuality and evaluate sexual behaviour among girls who received the HPV vaccine and those who did not. Additional studies could be conducted to explore national trends or examine differences between different provincial vaccination programs.

    Acknowledgements

    The authors would like to thank Dr. Yuko Homma and Dr. Gu Li (Stigma and Resilience Among Vulnerable Youth Centre, The University of British Columbia), who provided some of the statistical analysis for the article.

    Footnotes
  • Visual abstract available at www.cmaj.ca/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1053/cmaj.180628/-/DC1

  • Competing interests: Gina Ogilvie and Simon Dobson reported antibody assay testing received from Merck that was conducted as part of an independent study monitoring antibody response to the HPV vaccine. The assay testing was done at no cost to the study. No other competing interests were declared.

  • This article has been peer reviewed.

  • Contributors: Gina Ogilvie, Simon Dobson, Monika Naus and Elizabeth Saewyc contributed substantially to the conception and design of the study. Monika Naus and Elizabeth Saewyc contributed substantially to data acquisition. Felicia Phan and Elizabeth Saewyc contributed substantially to data analysis. Gina Ogilvie, Felicia Phan and Heather Pedersen substantially contributed to the interpretation of the data. Felicia Phan and Heather Pedersen drafted the initial manuscript. All of the authors reviewed and revised the manuscript critically for important intellectual content, gave final approval of the version to be published, and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved.

  • Funding: This study was funded in part by Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) grant no. MOP 119472 to Elizabeth Saewyc (principal investigator) and a CIHR Foundation Grant to Gina Ogilvie (principal investigator).

  • Data sharing: The BC Adolescent Health Survey is conducted by the McCreary Centre Society; they give approval for data access to established health and social science researchers whose proposed research aligns with the original purposes of the survey. Data are available for analysis only on site at the McCreary Centre Society in Vancouver, BC, on its secure computers, after approval of the proposed analyses, a signed Memorandum of Understanding and payment of data access fees to provide computer access and technical support. Further information on accessing the BC Adolescent Health Surveys is available at www.mcs.bc.ca/research_partnerships.

  • Disclaimer: The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

  • Accepted August 20, 2018.

  • Predictive Analytics in 2018: What’s Possible, Who’s Doing It, and How | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    In 2009, Netflix offered $1 million to anyone who could improve the quality of its recommendation engine by 10%. It took two years, but a team finally won. Netflix paid the bounty—then ignored the code.

    As it turned out, the enhanced algorithms “did not seem to justify the engineering effort needed to bring them into a production environment.”

    Not only did the winning prediction engine fail to scale economically, it also addressed an outdated problem: The shift from mail to streaming during that same two-year window gave Netflix all the data it needed to develop newer, better algorithms.

    Predictive analytics, in other words, wasn’t a panacea. Nor, in the decade since, has it become one. But, in 2018, incremental gains no longer cost $1 million either:

  • You have more data;
  • Storage is cheap; and
  • Cloud computing is almost infinitely scalable.
  • This post details those changes and shows how several businesses—and not just behemoths—have cultivated the predictive analytics landscape.

    What’s changed in the last decade? 1. More data, more storage, more computing power

    Massive, cloud-based repositories of customer interactions, often called data lakes, are the raw source material for predictive analytics applications.

    Many companies have taken advantage of cheap cloud storage to stow away data for years—without even considering its potential use. (How many neglected data points do you have in Google Analytics, Google Ads, MailChimp, Marchex, Stripe, and similar services?)

    That dual growth in scale—of data collected and accessibility to it—has solved two primary challenges of predictive analytics implementation.

    Historically, raw computing power has been the other. As Andrew Pearson of Intelligencia notes, “Without significant hardware investments, predictive analytics programs either weren’t possible or too slow to be useful.”

    That, Pearson continued, has also changed: “Cloud-based analytics systems have added massive computer power into the mix.” Increasingly powerful systems cracked open the door for real-time predictive analytics.

    2. A world of real-time predictions

    For some, the age of “real-time” predictive analytics is here. Judah Phillips, the co-founder and CTO of Vizadata and founder of SmartCurrent, explained:

    We already live in a world of “real-time” predictive analytics. A simple predictive analysis is your arrival time in Waze. A more complex real-time prediction occurs billions of times worldwide every millisecond in matching certain types of digital advertising.

    Further, companies like Mintigo and Versium now offer real-time solutions for lead scoring, showing that the transition is technically possible. Possible, however, doesn’t mean perfect. Sam Underwood, a vice president at Futurety, acknowledged the complexity of necessary integrations:

    Especially in the mid-market world, the tools that gather data to turn into predictive modeling—CRM systems, social media aggregators, logistics, and purchasing systems—often do not have friendly APIs or other easy mechanisms with which to quickly gather and interpret data.

    That disconnect still thwarts even the most fundamental business cases for real-time predictive analytics. David Longstreet, the chief data scientist at FanThreeSixty, offered an example:

    In our world of sports and entertainment, for example, most sports teams do not know how many people are in a stadium for a game. Teams know how many tickets were distributed; however, they do not know in “real time” how many people are in the venue or stadium during the event.

    That knowledge gap hampers efforts to staff and stock the stadium appropriately. It’s also why interest in predictive analytics is almost universal, even if it vastly outpaces adoption.

    3. Slow adoption but soaring interest

    So how many businesses are actively using predictive analytics? According to research from Dresner Advisory Services, about 23%, a figure essentially unchanged from the prior year.

    predictive analytics adoption

    Less than a quarter of businesses are using predictive analytics—though almost all aspire to do so. (Image source)

    Interest, however, exceeds implementation. The same research suggests that 90% of businesses “attach, at minimum, some importance to advanced and predictive analytics.”

    So which questions are those 23% answering with predictive analytics? Let’s take a look.

    Which questions can marketers answer with predictive analytics?

    “They want to predict everything,” according to Underwood. And who wouldn’t want to know the exact foot (or web) traffic by month, day, and hour to streamline staffing (or allocate server resources)?

    But, Underwood continued, he tries to focus clients on “the one thing that, if we could predict it for you, would revolutionize your business.”

    In digital marketing, Phillips outlined myriad use cases for predictive analytics, including the capability to predict:

  • which advertising will be most effective—however you define effective.
  • which marketing campaigns, channels, touches, behaviors, and demographics are contributing to a business outcome, a form of “machine learning–based attribution.”
  • which segment, test, or personalization a user is most likely to respond to.
  • the probability of users to click on an ad, to download a whitepaper, to respond to an email, to respond to an offer, and other customer response you define.
  • which leads will convert—however you define conversion.
  • which customers will buy one or more products for a cross-sell or upsell.
  • the number of purchases or revenue that will occur in the future.
  • which customers will have high/medium/low lifetime value.
  • customer churn.
  • The novel opportunity of predictive analytics, then, is not what you can predict but the fact that you can predict. The historical data you currently analyze can probably become a prediction.

    Just make sure you have the data.

    What do you need to get started with predictive analytics?

    Data, data, and data. “Priority 1A and 1B are data sources,” stated Underwood. That’s true whether you plan to license software or hire an outside organization. (Both options are detailed later.)

    All uses require training data. That training data, in turn, is used to build a predictive model to apply to current data. “The only limitation we’ve run into,” Phillips noted, “is a company’s available data for training.”

    How much data is enough? According to Phillips:

    A few thousand records with a sufficient amount of positive and negative outcomes can be sufficient for marketing, sales, and product prediction.

    Not all data is created (or stored) equally

    “You have to understand—I grew up tearing tickets.”

    FanThreeSixty’s Longstreet has heard that same explanation from venue managers who have spent countless hours counting stacks of stubs after games. It’s a reason why vital data sources may not be easily accessible, or accessible at all.

    In stadiums, Longstreet explained, point-of-sale machines and ticket scanners exist for a single purpose—to complete transactions quickly and keep lines moving. Those systems do not store data efficiently for extraction, nor can they handle incessant server requests (unless hungry fans don’t mind waiting).

    For Underwood, clients tend to fall into one of two buckets, with half in each:

  • “The ideal client has an internal database set up and ready to go. We pull in the data, build the model, and are off and running.”
  • The other half have a mix of data sources, which inevitably include an offshore SQL database (or ten) managed by an external vendor whom no one can track down.
  • Stitching data sources together is a major development project that may require creating custom connectors, setting up third-party FTP drops, and other complex but thankless tasks. That work, however, is necessary: Models and their predictions are only as accurate as the data they’re built upon.

    Don’t forget external data sources

    Not all data comes from internal sources, either. External data sources, like weather reports, are often a critical addition to data lakes, especially for small businesses. As Underwood explained:

    Restaurants may use analytics to trigger email sends; for example, we can set up the email platform to sync with National Weather Service data to send an email about iced tea when the temperature in a given metro area is above 90 degrees.

    Likewise, we can trigger an email to send to customers in a given city if the system detects wind gusts of 40+ MPH. Both of these use cases reach consumers in a key moment of need, negating downstream ad spend and beating competitors to the punch.

    So you have a large, well-organized dataset. What do you do with it?

    How do you turn data into predictions?

    While the limitation of insufficient data has faded, another remains:

    Companies require either a dedicated team of data scientists to parse through these sets, or a software suite powerful enough to do so rapidly. For most small and medium-sized businesses, this usually means settling for subpar software, or forgoing it entirely.

    For businesses of all sizes, solutions branch into two options:

  • Purchase software and create predictions in-house.
  • Pay an outside vendor to develop models and visualizations for you.
  • 1. Predictive analytics software

    The marketplace for predictive analytics software has ballooned: G2Crowd records 92 results in the category. Pricing varies substantially based on the number of users and, in some cases, amount of data, but generally starts around $1,000 per year, though it can easily scale into six figures.

    G2Crowd lists both IBM’s SPSS Statistics and SAS’s Advanced Analytics as market leaders at the enterprise level. Along with RStudio, the pair are also tagged as leaders for mid-market companies; only IBM retains a place in the “Leaders” quadrant for small businesses.

    Historically, however, even industry-leading predictive analytics software hasn’t been a simple, jump-right-in experience. Take these two examples from IBM’s SPSS Statistics and RapidMiner:

    ibm spss statistics screenshot

    rapid miner screenshot

    While these platforms are powerful, users must format data files, link nodes, and develop visualizations. Learning how to do this—and having the time to do it—is a specialized, full-time job. (To believe otherwise is to expect a Microsoft Word license to write your Great American Novel.)

    Not surprisingly, the market is shifting. RapidMiner has rolled out a SaaS beta that, with a bit of manual adjustment, translates an Excel sheet full of, say, employment data to a prediction of employee retention:

    rapid miner saas excel sheet

    A dataset in Excel—a starting point in which most marketers are already comfortable. rapid miner intake

    RapidMiner parses the Excel file prior to crunching the numbers. rapidminer predictive visualization

    The resulting visualization shows the tool’s prediction performance and correlations between datasets and retention.

    Some companies, like Vizadata’s Phillips, see the user-friendly SaaS model as the future:

    We are democratizing data science, so that people with limited or no data science or engineering skills can predict. You simply upload your data and click next. We do all the heavy lifting.

    Our intelligence determines your dependent and independent variables and the type of analysis to run. You can go with our selections or override them—from regression, where we can do forecasting and optimization, to both binary and multiclass classification, where we can predict the probability of outcomes.

    vizadata screenshot

    User-friendly SaaS models make predictive analytics more accessible to marketing teams without data scientists.

    Like Vizadata, MIT’s Endor pursues this path. The platform uses a query-builder to allow anyone to ask questions like “Where should we open our next store?” or “Who is likely to try product X?” It then mines targeted datasets to provide answers, often in a matter of minutes.

    The inclusion of tangential datasets that fall outside consideration—or feasibility—for human observers is a recurring advantage of predictive analytics. Endor’s creators offer an example:

    A marketing department for a bank asks, “Who is going to get a mortgage in the next six months?” Machine-learning engines may detect a pool of, say, 5,000 customers who have a bank credit card and a high credit score, and are married—many of which may be false positives.

    Endor detects more specific clusters of, say, couples about to get married or going through a divorce, founders who recently sold their startups to Facebook, or customers who recently graduated from a local real-estate course.

    Of course, if you want to outsource the process entirely, outside vendors can organize your data, build models, and visualize predictions for you.

    2. Outside vendors Agencies offering bespoke solutions

    For most clients, Futurety starts by identifying the key business question—not a specific metric or visualization. Clients may come in for one-off projects, annual re-runs of their data, or ongoing work.

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    Webcast, October 17th: How to Solve Your Marketing Data Nightmare

    “The end result is not always clear at the beginning,” Underwood explained. “When we’re delivering to someone close to the outcome, like a marketing manager, they’re typically happy with the model, the finding, and the math behind it.”

    The “end result” could be several things:

  • Integration with a third-party platform, like an email client, to automate predictive messaging.
  • Plain-text predictive answers to guide practitioners.
  • Robust visualizations to demonstrate the process and value to the C-Suite.
  • At the end of each engagement, Futurety delivers the model back to the client for management and maintenance.

    Predictive analytics at work
  • Futurety has a small business client that helps aspiring performing arts majors gain admission to their dream college. But few high schoolers have broad knowledge of good programs. More often than not, they know only one name: Julliard.
  • Futurety trained its model on three years of placement data. Then, using new student data entered into a common portal, predicted where students would get accepted and succeed academically.
  • The predictive analytics model, which Futurety updates annually, delivers a simple list of recommended schools for students based on factors like grades and exposure to different musical or artistic styles.
  • The model takes into account whether past placements graduated or won awards.
  • All-in-one niche providers

    FanThreeSixty serves a narrow market: sporting venues. Because they work with a comparatively consistent dataset—season ticket, concession, and souvenir sales—they know the range of business questions, data outcomes, and relevant visualizations.

    This consistency incentivizes niche vendors like FanThreeSixty to develop proprietary dashboards to roll out to all clients.

    The interface allows Longstreet’s team to keep data science in the background: “The secret of machine learning is when you’re being prompted behind the scenes.”

    Distilled fully, FanThreeSixty’s goal (and Longstreet’s explanation of his role at dinner parties) is to “help teams sell more tickets and hot dogs.”

    Predictive analytics at work
  • FanThreeSixty mines historical data to see which concessions are most commonly purchased with a hot dog at a Major League Soccer venue.
  • If a customer purchases a hot dog, concession staff are prompted to ask whether a customer would like to add the most popular accompaniment. That recommendation—a prediction of fan desire—changes based on other variables.
  • Predictions consider more than 20 datasets—everything from the home location of season ticket holders to the weather—to tailor messaging before, during, and after matches.
  • During cold-weather games, for example, FanThreeSixty can automate push notifications with tailored coupons, like buy-three-get-one-free hot chocolate for a family of four.
  • Whether solutions are internally or externally managed, they‘ve long been common in enterprise businesses.

    Predictive analytics use cases at the enterprise level

    Marketing departments in large organizations have used predictive analytics for years:

  • AutoTrader. AutoTrader uses data from its 40 million monthly visitors to better understand the sometimes lengthy customer journey. They built propensity models based on search behavior and created high-value lookalike audiences.
  • Editialis. The French publisher uses predictive analytics in its email campaigns to “anticipate engagement at an individual level.” As a result, they’ve seen click-through-rates increase “dramatically.”
  • Predictive analytics can also coordinate offline and online interactions, with two clear use cases for marketers whose companies have physical products or storefronts:

  • Improved pricing. Smartphone data registers in-store browsing habits to improve online or offline marketing targeting, approximating the advantages enjoyed by ecommerce companies.
  • Inventory management. Full warehouses cost money; empty shelves cost money. Folding online data, such as search patterns, into sales data can better manage inventory, especially at a regional and local level.
  • In addition to external marketing campaigns, predictive analytics also supports internal project management. Large marketing campaigns have many moving parts—a new ad campaign needs new creative, new copywriting, new landing pages, etc.

    Coordinating the involvement of those teams and accurately estimating the time-to-launch is complex. Many fail to get it right, sometimes at great expense.

    whiteboard planning

    Marketers and software businesses may use predictive analytics for internal project management in addition to external campaigns.

    Predictive algorithms, as McKinsey notes, use a wider lens that captures historical patterns and unique project elements in a single frame:

    While every development project is unique, the underlying complexity drivers across projects are similar and can be quantified. If companies understand the complexity involved in a new project, they can estimate the effort and resources required to complete it.

    Predictive analytics models “take into account not only the complexity of the project (both the functional and implementation aspects) but also the complexity of the team environment.”

    Predictive analytics at work:

    More accurate internal project management, in an example McKinsey offers, can have a major impact:

  • A company initially planned a product update to take roughly 300 person-weeks of effort, an estimate based on the limited number of changes between the current product and a new design.
  • However, that estimate failed to take into account the fact that planned updates would affect many different teams. Predictive analytics models did take it into account and estimated that the project would take three to four times as long.
  • As a result, the company limited the work to the original product team, enabling them to deliver the update on time.
  • In addition to helping companies solve internal and external challenges, predictive analytics is also the foundation for some businesses.

    Building a business on predictive analytics

    Ken Lazarus, CEO of the recruiting platform Scout Exchange, has an advantage—the company has been around for only five years.

    That means that the company’s data sources are already primed for extraction into its predictive models that pair companies with the right recruiter.

    scout exchange processScout Exchange’s predictions pair companies with the right recruiter.

    The single best predictor of job placement, Lazarus and his team have found, is the track record of job recruiters. In contrast, pairing the right job description with the right resume remains exceedingly difficult.

    “Job specs are horrible,” he lamented. “The data isn’t on the paper. CVs are pretty horrible, too.” (Data augmentation, such as skills testing and video interview decoding, Lazarus noted, offer potential improvements.)

    Nonetheless, holes remain. Candidates will never disclose negatives on their resume, and important information might forever remain “non-data,” such as whether a candidate is a good “culture fit.”

    Scaling data gathering

    Scout Exchange has honed its predictions by focusing on enterprise customers—its algorithms feast on hundreds or thousands of openings from Fortune 500 clients.

    As a result, the platform takes in roughly 1 million data points monthly, with each new job posting yielding an additional 50 data points.

    scout exchange platform

    Higher employer ratings indicate an employer is more responsive than his or her peers. Likewise, higher recruiter ratings suggest a recruiter is more likely to succeed in submitting acceptable candidates than his or her peers.

    Still, human assessment by a recruiter—and their client—is necessary. Lazarus drew a parallel: “Would you let machine learning pick your wife? No. But would you let it pick the right matchmaker to help you find a spouse? Yes.”

    Those who are trying to solve the most complex human issues aren’t even in the business world.

    Predictive analytics with life or death consequences

    The greatest challenges for predictive analytics are those that deal with complex, individualized human behavior, such as the likelihood that a patient or crisis-line texter will commit suicide.

    Because success or failure is measured in human lives, these challenges are also the most urgent. And while these projects operate beyond the scope of marketing and business, they suggest the potential for predictive analytics as it evolves.

    “REACH VET is not about trying to find the veteran who’s sitting in the car in a parking lot with a gun in his lap,” Aaron Eagan, Veteran Affairs deputy director for innovation told a Washington conference.

    “What we found,” Eagan continued, “is that veterans at highest risk of suicide [also have] significantly increased rates of all-cause mortality, accident morality, overdoses, violence, [and] opioids.” Proactive alerts that trigger physician check-ins have improved primary-care appointment attendance and reduced hospital admissions for mental health issues.

    crisis text line

    The project is similar to a collaboration between Periscope Data and Crisis Text Line, a text-based suicide hotline.

    Leaning on natural language processing and predictive analytics, the program analyzed conversations, forecasted trends, and trained more than 13,000 volunteers. The results?

  • Wait times decreased to less than 5 minutes, an operational goal.
  • Capacity increased by 10% during peak periods.
  • Responses were prioritized based on machine-identified urgency.
  • Endor’s technology has taken on similarly serious challenges. Using 15 million data points from 50 known ISIS supporters, Endor identified 80 lookalike accounts in less than half an hour, with only 35 false positives—expert investigation was still necessary yet feasible.

    In a collaborative project with the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, the platform also analyzed mobile data to identify patterns to predict future riots.

    Conclusion

    Predictive analytics is not immune to criticism: GDPR rebuffs some of the same collection methods that swell data lakes. And not all predictions, even the most accurate, are well-received. (Famously, Target unwittingly informed a father of his teenage daughter’s pregnancy based on seemingly benign shopping habits.)

    Predictive analytics experts point out that their algorithms search for patterns among values, not the values themselves. Regardless, insufficient data is unlikely to hold back the expansion of the industry—the IoT, wearables, and other data collectors already supplement traditional web and app analytics.

    User-friendly SaaS platforms are still an emerging opportunity. For most businesses, creating models and predictions from historical data still requires a dedicated employee to navigate complex software solutions or the outsourcing of that work to a vendor.

    For those postponing predictive analytics projects until the SaaS options are more mature, you would be wise to keep filling your data lake.


    A Pure Play On Self-Service Big Data Prep And Analytics: Wait For Smarter Valuation Entry Point | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

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